Overview
This report is a background knowledge source on the effect of climate change on mealybugs and viruses in particular. In laboratory tests, citrophilus and longtailed mealybugs survived two hours above 40°C (upper limit about 45°C), and over 20% of citrophilus mealybugs survived −6°C, suggesting likely persistence under warming. The mealybug destroyer ladybird showed similar tolerance. A literature review found the three common vineyard mealybugs can transmit grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3, and that mealybug control is crucial because infected grapevines cannot be cured. Models projected climate space for longtailed mealybug retreating south, but were preliminary, as species-level pest records were lacking.
The project provides information on potential impacts of climate change on pest occurrence in vineyards through predicting change in abundance of both the pests and the natural enemies that contribute to their control. This was done through literature reviews of potential changes in vines and insects under climate change, modelling changes in distribution based on current occurrence records and laboratory testing of thermal limits of mealybugs and an important natural enemy. The overall objective was to identify the risk of emerging and future pest and disease threats and provide information to facilitate implementation of pest control strategies to manage the challenges of climate change.
Increasingly accurate climate records available for predictive modelling provide a valuable resource when associated with current distribution data for crops, pests and natural enemies. Globally, the wine industry has been able to model change in climate suitability for different grape varieties in preparation for response to climate change. This has been possible because an accurate data base exists of current variety location and phenology within location. The lack of an accurate database of insect (pest and natural enemy) occurrence hinders accurate prediction of likely outcomes in response to increased temperature and decreased rainfall. The modelling available is rapidly improving and developing; the industry is currently limited in its ability to take advantage of this. While the current initiatives to move collected data from State departments of agriculture, museums, universities and CSIRO should be encouraged, a data repository and support tools are needed for the industry. In some cases, this will mean improving identification tools for growers.
Abstract
The project aim was to inform the industry on potential changes in pest impact under climate change. Extensive information on vines, vine pests and the predators and parasitoids that contribute to pest control was sourced from literature reviews and combined with model outputs and results of laboratory testing to predict likely pest impacts on grape production under climate change.
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Climate adaptation
Pests and diseases
